The first two theories speak to dynamics that can operate on an unconscious level – we can learn to become aware of how they work, but it's difficult. The third theory,
cost-benefit analysis, lends itself a bit more to conscious analysis. It has a lot in common with rational choice theory, which we studied
earlier this week, and says that in the end we make our choices over what norms we follow not based on inner standards or group identities so much as on what the payoff is. We look at a norm, according to cost-benefit theorists, and decide to follow depending on what rewards or sanctions we're likely to encounter.
As was mentioned earlier this week, calling this approach
rationalist doesn't mean that the choices people make are never
irrational. Rational here just means
dictated by an inner logic. We might not understand that logic, and perhaps the person making the choice might not either. But on some level it's thought that a given norm will benefit us, so we go for it. Plenty of high-level negotiations work with this model, with different parties trying to convince the other using carrots or sticks to settle on an agreement.
The fourth theory,
game theory, takes the rational approach and expands it to a strategic level. For the game theorist, we choose a given norm not only for its benefit or risk, but also keeping in mind what everyone else might choose. So you're going to want to optimize your choices by being cooperative when it's in your interest, but to also go your own way (and perhaps exploit other people) when the odds are in your favour.
No one theory is going to explain everyone's behaviour, or effectively analyze why people choose certain norms over others, but combining them might give you a relatively comprehensive picture. And, if we're trying to understand how norms and conventions impact whether or not people will start fighting each other, then we're going to want to have as many tools in the toolbox as possible.
But while being armed with theory is important, the next step is in trying to make it relevant in the field. And so we're left at the end of the seminar with a few questions: how can we analyze when people start switching between different norm modes? What kind of interventions can we make that might encourage more constructive norms of conflict resolution? What can we do in ourselves to prevent our own choices from being hijacked by any of these processes?
And, of course, what consequences will a given choice of norms have on other people? We're not only talking about what
they choose, either – it's about us too. Different people have different answers.The
rationalist community develops tools to help us overcome cognitive bias (in ourselves and others). Michael Pollan's book
How To Change Your Mind discusses new (and legal) studies of how psychedelics can help give people enough perspective to understand (and perhaps chance) their choice of norms. Social psychologist Jonathan Haid's book
The Righteous Mind assembles plenty of evidence on group behaviour and the switching of value systems.
So the next step is up to us.